Vietnam's Foreign Trade in 2024: A New Record, Awaiting New Momentum

After an unprecedented contraction in 2023, Vietnam's foreign trade rebounded by 15.4% in 2024, reaching a record high of USD 786.3 billion. This recovery was driven by the growth of exports (+14.3%, or USD 406 billion) and imports (+16.7%, or USD 380.8 billion), generating a trade surplus of USD 24.8 billion. The country continues to integrate into global value chains, benefiting from the relocation of industries from China amid Sino-American tensions and an ambitious trade policy with 17 agreements covering 53 countries. However, the services trade remains limited (12.6% of GDP) and structurally in deficit.

Vietnam’s exports are heavily concentrated towards the United States (29.5%), where the trade surplus reached a record USD 123 billion in 2024 (+20%), making Vietnam the third-largest contributor to the U.S. trade deficit. This dependence exposes the country to potential protectionist measures, particularly under the current U.S. administration. Other major trade partners include China, South Korea, and Japan, while France ranks only 24th. In terms of products, exports are dominated by electronic equipment (31.2%), while the share of textiles and footwear is gradually declining.

At the same time, Vietnam remains highly dependent on Chinese imports, which account for 37.9% of the total (+33.9% compared to 2023). This situation contradicts Hanoi’s objective of diversifying its suppliers to reduce vulnerability to geopolitical fluctuations. Most of Vietnam’s imports consist of electronic components and industrial equipment for local assembly. Other key suppliers include South Korea (USD 55.9 billion), Taiwan, and Japan, while the United States ranks fifth (USD 15.1 billion).

Vietnam’s foreign trade is largely dominated by foreign-invested enterprises, which contribute 71.3% of exports despite representing only 3% of the country’s registered businesses. This heavy reliance limits the economic upgrading process, as local enterprises remain focused on the domestic market and are weakly integrated into global value chains. Vietnam’s integration index within these chains has declined in recent years, illustrating the country’s struggle to capture more added value.

Although Vietnam has diversified its exports, it remains specialized in low-value-added tasks. Foreign investments are still primarily attracted by low production costs, leading to a concentration of activities in labor-intensive sectors and a slow economic upgrade. For instance, the local value-added share in electronic exports is only 15%, and just 12% of the country’s total exports incorporate services. Moreover, Vietnam continues to import a significant amount of high-value-added services, hampering its industrial development.

To achieve its goal of becoming a high-income economy by 2045, Vietnam has launched several reforms to improve workforce quality and infrastructure. Recent initiatives include training programs for the electronics sector, a target to invest 3% of GDP in innovation, and the development of transport infrastructure. Additionally, the country aims to reduce its carbon footprint to maintain export competitiveness, with a nuclear program revival planned for the 2030s.

However, this transition to a higher-value economy is occurring in a global context marked by rising trade tensions and protectionist industrial policies. As many countries seek to relocate their strategic industries, Vietnam must rethink its development model to remain competitive. While its dependence on foreign trade has fueled economic growth and poverty reduction, it also exposes the country to significant economic and social risks in the event of a global demand slowdown.

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